War in the Middle East. A still-recovering ad industry. A general economic malaise. Not exactly the backdrop for a rousing NAB 2003. This year's show, to be held April 5-10 in Las Vegas, is shaping up to be a challenging one for both vendors and potential buyers.

Is anyone actually planning to buy anything at this year's National Association of Broadcasters trade show? Exhibitors certainly hope so. They're armed with an arsenal of new products, and attendees told Boards they're going with their minds open to any cool tech toys that might take their fancy.

As to whether they'll be coming with their checkbooks in hand, that depends, says Stuart English, a VP of marketing at Secaucus, NJ-based Panasonic. "People are buying in areas where they have a need. If they don't have a need, then they're clearly postponing their buying decisions."

That's the approach David Binstock, CEO of New York-based Rhinoceros Visual Effects and Design, is taking. Unlike past NAB shows, when he had a sense of the equipment he was scouting, he's not going with a shopping list this year. Instead, "we're looking to see what's new," says Binstock. "There may be some revolutionary stuff coming out at NAB that we don't know about."

He'll have to be in Vegas, in that case. Some companies are being cagey about pre-NAB product announcements. "You'll have to wait until the press conference," says English. "I can't even give you a hint."

However, after conducting a mini-survey of some of the exhibitors displaying their wares, one overriding theme seems to be emerging: high definition. It's not an entirely new mantra, according to several NAB veterans. "HD has been the big rallying message for the last four years," says Willi Powell, strategic development manager at Cupertino, CA-based Apple Computer.

Still, high definition seems to be one area where the ad industry is lagging behind the rest of the broadcast and film world. "Usually advertising is the style leader with technology," says Roger Thornton, manager of corporate relations at UK-based Quantel. That doesn't hold true with its slow adoption of HD. He thinks part of the problem is that the nature of advertising doesn't lend itself to the benefits of high definition.

"The point of an ad is to get an idea across in the shortest amount of time in the most punchy way," says Thornton. "There are differing philosophies on permanence." Also, because a lot of ads are layered with what Thornton calls "intensely processed imagery", the economics for HD don't always make sense. "At HD for 2K rates, it chews up a lot of processing power and money."

There are signs that the ad production community is willing to listen to the HD message - and maybe even plunk down some dollars. "Advertisers are starting to look at high def as an alternative to film," says English.

Panasonic is preaching speed of operation in the field. "The message we've heard from people who've shot high-definition variable frame rate rather than film has been, 'Now that we have tried it, we're glad we did'."

English thinks one of the benefits of HD is the fact that production houses will be able to increase film ratios because tape stock is cheaper than film stock. "It doesn't mean you can cut lighting or actors, it doesn't lower cost per se, but it has more footage in the can at the end of the day, and the picture quality is stunning."

Panasonic is just one of several vendors at NAB that hope to make a lot of noise around HD. Sony Electronics, New Jersey, plans to launch its lower-cost JH series of HD players and portable recorders. Marketing manager André Floyd says his firm's HD-ready technology can protect your investment in analog and digital half-inch recording media, while enabling you to accomplish new tasks, like directly editing HDCAM video, and transferring data across IP networks using options "to easily upconvert legacy assets for the DVT and HDTV world of today and tomorrow". The company will also be showcasing a host of related products ranging from cinematic equipment to storage hardware. An independent production area will show Sony's hardware working with third-party software products from Avid, Adobe, Canopus, Matrox, Apple and Insight.

Because of the waves companies like Sony and Panasonic are making, "the availability and the access to HD will become easier," says Matt Allard, senior manager of product marketing at Tewskbury, MA-based Avid Technology. "It'll be more within reach of the post-production community" - something he anticipates will affect the whole post-production infrastructure. "That's a great opportunity for us," he says. "We are tuning our product story for that."

Some attendees expect to see something other than HD. Andy Milkis, creative director and visual effects supervisor at Splash in New York, has set the bar high on his expectations. "I hope there will be answers to my big question: 'And now what?'" He points to last year's NAB, which he found disappointing from a new product standpoint. "There was nothing really new that I looked at and said, 'Wow, this is going to change the way I work'." He suggests that's because HD hasn't caught on yet. "It's maybe why there hasn't been a 'next big thing' paradigm shift."

For Sally Kapsalis, managing director at NY's Spontaneous Combustion, HD is a long-term goal. Right now she's hoping to spot some strong storage and workflow systems. "We create images using so many different platforms, that the connections and data storage have to be as strong as the equipment itself," she says. Another wish-list item: better web-based technology. This, Kapsalis says, is what Spontaneous' clients are asking for, as the web becomes more important to their own marketing and advertising strategies.

"The industry has changed into a non-linear world where everything is electronic," she observes. Even our paperwork is electronic."

Attendees can expect workflow-related announcements from a variety of players. Sony is unveiling products designed to enable broadcasters and video professionals to work "smarter, faster and more conveniently", with improved access to recorded material and improved video system management. Using Sony's new optical disc video system, users can move files over IP networks without having to hand-carry videotapes from one process to the next, Sony says.

On the software front, Alias|Wavefront of Toronto is tuning its flagship product, Maya, for greater efficiency, says Bob Bennett, general manager of product development. "We're adding those workflow gems that make a difference in how quickly a job can be delivered."

Avid, meanwhile, will be talking up its Unity workgroup tool. "The idea of collaboration in this business is ingrained," says Avid's Allard. "It's been there a long time. It's unique that there are systems that allow it to be done so transparently." The workflow message won't be lost on attendees, says Milkis. "We're used to dealing with agency clients who want to see the change they requested now, not in 20 minutes."

Still, Milkis is pessimistic that the products at this year's NAB will be anything special. "It's frustrating when you see giant banners of 'Check out version 28 of whatever'. Well, maybe it'll have nice workflow improvements but it's like, 'Dude, I remember the first time you put X in your software package that made me say, this will radically change the way I create. Wow me, show me something'."

English feels the advertising industry should loosen up and shed some of its preconceptions, since TV is losing its absolute dominance. Look at web-based and HD technology, he advises, because that's where the future lies. "You have other outlets to consider [now]."

WEBFILES:
Avid> http://www.avid.com
Panasonic> http://www.panasonic.com/PBDS/
Quantel> http://www.quantel.com
Sony> http://bssc.sel.sony.com/